America's Senior Moment: The Most Rapidly Aging Cities

In the following decades, the United States is going to look much grayer. By 2050, the number of Americans over 65 will almost double to 81.7 million, with the share of the total population Rising to 21 percent from about 15 percent now, according to projections of the census. More than 10.000 baby boomers are turning 65 every day.

The Philadelphia 76ers’ senior citizens dance team perform during a time out in the game against
the Cleveland Cavaliers on January 5, 2015, in Philadelphia, Pa.

Almost every part of America will become more senior-dominated, but some more than others.

To determine where they are concentrated more heavily their elders, we looked at 2014 American community through surveys of the country 53 largest metropolitan areas and looked at which areas have high rates in the elderly. In many ways, these areas are already experiencing what most of the country in the coming decades.

The most aged regions largely come in two forms. Retirement metropolitan areas are older in large part due to long-term patterns of senior immigration. First on the list of our most aged parts are Tampa-Saint Petersburg, Florida, where 18.7 percent of the population is over 65, well above the national average of 13.3 percent. Tucson, Arizona dry and warm, ranked third at 17.7%, while Miami is the fourth, with 17 percent.

But many of the older metropolitan areas of America have little in common arid Arizona elements or steamy Florida. Many of the areas most senior-heavy is the rust belt, which has lost residents to other locations for future generations, particularly young people. This includes America's second most senior-dominated metro area, Pittsburgh, where a remarkable 18.3 percent of the population is over 65, 26 percent higher than the national average. Cities are largely dark gray zone comprising No. 5 Buffalo (16,7 percent senior); No. 6 Cleveland (16,5%) · No. 7 Rochester, New York (16.0%) · No. 8 Providence, RI (15.8 percent), Nr. 9 Hartford (15.7%); and No. 10 St. Louis (14,9%). No. 11 Birmingham, Alabama (14.7%), although located in the south, has a long history as a center of heavy industry.

And where is still relatively elderly minutes into the soil; Mostly in booming sections of the Sun Belt, places that have long enjoyed significant positive internal migration from other Member States and abroad. Three of the five least senior-dominated parts are in Texas, including Austin (9,4%), Houston (9.8 percent) and Dallas-Ft. worth (10.2 percent). The other two include Salt Lake City, family friendly Mormon capital where only 9.6 percent of the population is over 65 years old and high-tech capital Raleigh (10.6 percent).

Older senior profits

The picture is very different when we begin to look at where the proportion of elderly in the population has risen rapidly. This reflects not so much nicer weather, per se, or the predominance of older, decline and the largest migration pattern of the last 40 years: the movement of people to lower cost, usually growing members.

Now many of these same people arrive for 65 more soon. Typical areas are still young, but is now aging quickly is Atlanta - the highest share of the population rose 20 percent between 2010 and 2014. This is well above the increase of 11.3 percent over all of the 53 largest metropolitan areas. Other areas that combine migration Total profits rapidly aging include Raleigh, where the share of senior three-day 18.1 tois hundred of the period examined; Las Vegas, a major attraction for immigrants for a generation, saw its share increased by 17.7%.

Some of the fastest growing areas is also senior positions youth magnets, especially in recent years. Take for example, Portland, Oregon, which is sometimes described as the "place new ones are going to retire." Now most of the city's residents rose is actually retired or heading towards it; the proportion of elderly in Portland's population increased by 17.4% from 2010 to 2014, the fourth highest percentage of any major metropolitan area. Another youth magnets, such as Austin, Denver and Charlotte, have also experienced higher than average share of growth superior. All these metropolitan areas ranked in the top third in domestic migration during the same period.

Why is that certainly in some places is a function of lowering prices in these cities; seniors to cash in from California or New York to feather their nest eggs by moving elsewhere and buying a cheaper home. For those who need nonstop sunshine, move to Austin, or such a need North Carolina in Raleigh and Charlotte, it requires a commitment to shoveling snow. Even high cost Portland and Denver are opportunities than California and New York.

Another explanation may be that many parents follow their children migrate (prominent grandchildren) in these areas. A recent study that one of the biggest reason, move seniors. Similarly, as one in four millennials have moved to be closer to their parents, often enjoying life in more accessible communities and help with the upbringing of their children.

Back in town?

The movement of the Sun Cities area, which tend to be more suburban with more dispersed employment contradicts a favorite urban legends - that millions of boomers aging, now relieved of their children, keeping their suburban homes for core city ​​apartments. Some claim that suburbs car being driven, it will become impossible for older people as they age, although ultimately autonomous vehicles could allow boomers lead if they can live independently.

Still, as in so many demographic issues, the meme "conflicts back to the city" with preferences and actual behavior of older. The most recent decennial census, for example, shows that the highest percentage share in both the inner core and older suburbs fell between 2000 and 2010, while increasing significantly in newer suburbs and exurbs. The latest data show these patterns continue. Since 2010 senior population in core cities has increased by 621 000, while the numbers in the suburbs have increased from 2.6 million.

Meme «The Back in Town" addressed to journalists and civil amplifiers, but in fact the numbers behind it is quite small. 2011 survey in real estate consulting firm RCLCO found that among affluent empty nesters, 65% planned in their current home, 14% are expected to look for a resort type dwelling, and only 3 percent would opt for a condominium of core city. Most of those surveyed preferred living spaces of 2,000 square feet or more. RCLCO concluded that the empty nester "back to town" condominium demand was 250,000 households nationwide, studied a small but lucrative market of 4.5 million empty nester households in metropolitan areas.

Instead of moving into the city, most boomers, if moving, head towards the periphery or outside the city altogether. A National Association Realtors 2012 survey found that the vast majority of buyers over 65 years appeared in suburban areas, followed by rural areas. By contrast, relatively few older people are likely to leave their homes for condos in the city center; a study by the Research Institute for Housing America suggested that barely 2 percent of all «empty nesters" seeking an urban locales.

Looking to the future

Where seniors move would do much to shape the future geography of America. In some areas, especially in the rust belt, the aging of the population may suffer from a lack of young people to create new wealth, pay taxes or provide their services. In many others, particularly in the sun belt, areas that now are built around Juvenile immigration should be prepared to accommodate many more people aging. And perhaps the biggest challenges will be felt from the suburbs, built for young families, must now accommodate a growing senior population.

Previously always change correlated with the movements and desires of young people. But in the 21st century can be well seniors, not kids who will forge new trails on how American Communities fare.